Is -2.5 and -3.5 a profitable middle in the NBA?

Bet-It-All · Dec 4, 2006

I usually just bet games but Im trying to start playing middles, is that a profitable middle long term or do you need bigger middle to profit?

Edit: I mean -2.5 and +3.5

Fishhead · Dec 4, 2006

No.........not close if your laying -110 on both sides.

Dubpoet · Dec 4, 2006

4 to 7 are the big numbers in nba

royalfan · Dec 4, 2006

Fishhead said:
No.........not close if your laying -110 on both sides.

Would not expect an incorrect statement like this to come from you. Ofcourse it is a profitable situation although not great profit. For fish to say it is a bad play and not close is shocking if he relies on middles for a lot of his profits. Get yourself reduiced juice and this situation you are golden!!

Doug · Dec 4, 2006

1.5 points is about breakeven ( at -110), FH is correct.

Doug · Dec 4, 2006

No number hits the required 4.76% to break even.

royalfan · Dec 4, 2006

You have to consider just games when the line is 3 doug, not all games.

Doug · Dec 4, 2006

let a guy like Brewers7 that has a database answer this. I'd pass that middle all day long, I'd even pass 1.5 points. ( at -110)

royalfan · Dec 4, 2006

just to prove my point that i am correct on pinnacles drop down. use the wizards dallas game at 3 1/2 points dallas true line(average of the favorite and dog prices) dallas is -109 and at 2 1/2 washington is plus 129 1/2 which is a 20 1/2 cent difference. If you are getting -110 it is just slightly benefecial play as I said but if you get reduiced juice you are golden, just as a said. The numbers don't lie.

royalfan · Dec 4, 2006

Doug said:
let a guy like Brewers7 that has a database answer this. I'd pass that middle all day long, I'd even pass 1.5 points. ( at -110)

I wouldnt mess with it at -110 either, but 1 1/2 points is a must play.

quantumleap · Dec 4, 2006

Doug said:
let a guy like Brewers7 that has a database answer this. I'd pass that middle all day long, I'd even pass 1.5 points. ( at -110)

This is only one reason I bought brewers7 database.

Doug · Dec 4, 2006

royalfan said:
I wouldnt mess with it at -110 either, but 1 1/2 points is a must play.

I've always thought of that as break-even, but I'll be willing to change that if facts say otherwise, my mind is open. I've played that middle before, just thought it was a waste of time.

Doug · Dec 4, 2006

quantumleap said:
This is only one reason I bought brewers7 database.

How much, if I may ask ?

Doug · Dec 4, 2006

1.5 does indeed look viable.

Iceman · Dec 4, 2006

Fish is ABSOLUETLY correct on this middle not being profitable. If both are -105 than yes but at -110 NO. Both sides -110 at a 1.5 middle is about breakeven.

Doug · Dec 4, 2006

Iceman said:
Fish is ABSOLUETLY correct on this middle not being profitable. If both are -105 than yes but at -110 NO. Both sides -110 at a 1.5 middle is about breakeven.

looks scalpable with Pinny on a 1.5 point middle, Ice.

Iceman · Dec 4, 2006

Doug said:
looks scalpable with Pinny on a 1.5 point middle, Ice.

Doug half points are worth bewtween 6.5 and 8 cents in hoops depending on who you ask. What looks scalpable, you lost me? My problem is I don't beleive at all that NBA half points are the same as NCAA. I say NBA is easier to middle then NCAA but don't have the info to support it and so I could easily be talked into 1.5 NBA middles at -110 being profitable

Doug · Dec 4, 2006

After further thought, I maintain 1.5 point middles are breakeven at full juice. It doesn't much matter. Where can you find a 1.5 point middle on NBA sides, in real time, anyway ?

D2bets · Dec 4, 2006

Iceman said:
Doug half points are worth bewtween 6.5 and 8 cents in hoops depending on who you ask. What looks scalpable, you lost me? My problem is I don't beleive at all that NBA half points are the same as NCAA. I say NBA is easier to middle then NCAA but don't have the info to support it and so I could easily be talked into 1.5 NBA middles at -110 being profitable

If you look at Pinny's dropdown they value an NBA half point between 8 and 10 cents FWIW.

Iceman · Dec 4, 2006

Doug said:
After further thought, I maintain 1.5 point middles are breakeven at full juice. It doesn't much matter. Where can you find a 1.5 point middle on NBA sides, in real time, anyway ?

They are even IMPOSSIBILE to find when taking leads 80% of the time. Just no line movement.

Doug,
how do you approcach betting the NBA. Really curious as you know I am a middler mainly (staying heavy a little on 1 side) and this hoops season has been very difficult and have been looking into some different things (mainly totals, 1st half and halftimes). Just wondering what your approach has been with hoops as I really respect your views on betting.